Analysis of flood control risk in floodwater utilization considering the uncertainty of flood volume and peak

Introduction: A design flood is a hypothetical used for the of reservoirs and other hydrologic engineering infrastructures. Among many hydrological properties flood, volume peak can significantly affect safety reservoir operation. However, uncertainty has rarely been considered in risk analysis operation regarding floodwater utilization. Methods: In this paper, general framework that integrates Monte Carlo sampling method most likely event selection proposed to calculate operating single reservoir. By generating large amount stochastic bivariate data, values were selected given return period. The probability maximum water level exceeding current was calculated based on simulation control under various utilization schemes. Results: model applied Shagou Shuhe River basin, China. results show obtained by joint are 7.59% 8.22% higher than those from univariate frequency analysis, respectively; period value spans 10a 1000a compared historical data; at 0.29 operations peak. Discussion: Moreover, marginal benefit may contain transmission effect between different node projects system.